USU Board Elections 2020: Preference Deals Revealed
Daany Saeed and Ellie Stephenson report.
(Note: Daany is a former member of NLS and Ellie is a former member of Grassroots).
Student politics often is a hive of treachery and deceit - and this is no more transparent than when you look into the world of preferences. In this article, we’ll explain what preferences are, why they matter, and what our resident hacks have been up to. Most board candidates running will have published the results of their various deals by the time voting opens at 9AM on the 18th of May, and we will update this as new information comes to light.
What are preferences?
This USU election uses optional preferential voting, the same method used in NSW state elections. This means that in the process of voting, in the event that your first choice doesn’t get elected, your vote flows to your second preference. In this election, you need only vote for one candidate at a minimum, and can choose to complete preferences for your vote, which are up to you and aren’t controlled by the candidates.
Preferences let you get a say in how you’d like the Union to look like, even if it’s not your ideal candidate winning - so of course, candidates are chomping at the bit to get their hands on yours. Candidates, like political parties, will recommend you vote a certain way, and imply that if you want to see them elected, you ought to follow what’s called a how-to-vote (HTV). These show how the candidate wants you to vote, but you’ve got no obligation to follow it, just like in state and federal politics. In theory, a candidate’s how-to-vote lines up with their values, but in practice it’s more representative of what’s materially beneficial for a candidate or a faction. Complex deals that send preferences all over the shop in exchange for office-bearing positions or commitments to future support in other elections are thrashed out in secluded places across campus every year, and they rely on voters following HTVs.
Who’s in bed with who?
Nick Rigby
Rigby leads a five-way consortium of candidates trying to make the best of this year’s centrist logjam, having reportedly had a particularly lop-sided proposal roundly rejected earlier in negotiations. Rigby has preferenced fellow Liberal Party member Ben Hines and Amir Jabbari over SASS co-executive Belinda Thomas, who he indicated during the campaign he was keen to work with. Given that Thomas has preferenced Nick third, the assumptions by the two big factional candidates in the deal are that they stand to benefit from strong primary votes, and they’re banking on small-time independents to get excluded early. This may be risky for Rigby given the strength of Hines’ campaign amongst some Liberals who have previously campaigned with Nick’s moderate faction.
Ben Hines
Ben Hines, without a faction behind him, needs strong preference flows and to pinch Nick Rigby’s primary vote to get elected. His preferences are a transparent indication of negotiations leading HTVs - Hines has been forced into betting on his own primary vote; without the strength of a faction or leverage of future favours down the line, Hines is cornered into a high-risk, high-reward strategy. Hines will hope to pick up the scraps from the other independents in the deal, although a weaker primary vote than the factional candidates will see his whole strategy crumble. Beyond the complexities of the deal, Hines’ HTV is otherwise relatively inoffensive, only being notable for leaving fellow Liberal Nick Rigby third, behind Belinda Thomas.
Belinda Thomas
Belinda Thomas has preferenced fellow Labor member Eitan Harris in a 2-for-2 swap, as predicted in our candidate preview. Thomas, like Rigby, has signed onto a deal with relatively few contingencies in terms of preference flows - if either Thomas or Rigby have lower than expected primary votes (a possibility for Rigby, given the challenges from within his own party) it could cause preference havoc across more than half the field. Thomas has preferenced Nick third, giving her a somewhat lopsided flow from Ben Hines should he be excluded early. With Thomas’ campaign led by student politics stalwart Liam Thomas (no relation), it is more than likely that the contingencies for Unity lie in further deals with the moderate Liberals down the track, with a pivotal SRC election looming in September.
Ruby Lotz
Ruby Lotz is a name that has been conspicuously absent from the other candidates’ how-to-votes; it appears Lotz, who was one of the strongest candidates in her interview and quiz, has been locked out of negotiations. NLS (Labor Left) usually finds natural USU allies with Switch, but they’ve been abandoned this year in favour of profiting from the international student turnout. NLS’ Labor bedfellows in Unity also tend to serve as faithful comrades, but recent USU elections have been markedly different - indeed, Belinda’s campaign manager Liam Thomas posted his vote on Instagram this morning, adding to his own how-to-vote with a fourth preference for Prudence in what must be a pointed jab at NLS. Trouble in paradise?
All the same, Ruby has been consistently leading the social media race by over a hundred likes; it’s possible she attracts a large volume of first preference votes in her own right. This would not be unprecedented: last year, Nick Forbutt attracted a huge amount of first preferences and did not have to rely on preference flows. Nick, however, is unlikely to be overjoyed; preference deals could have allowed him to build support for a shot at USU President. Ruby has received Prudence’s fourth preferences in what appears to be a lip-service gesture, and while she has preferenced Prudence second on a Facebook post, on other channels of social media, the Rebuild with Ruby campaign have largely ignored this. The inconsistency suggests a lack of formalised deal with Switch, and simply that Lotz’ preferences are a symbolic representation of her values, which is as much as she can do given her isolation from negotiations.
Prudence Wilkins-Wheat
If Prudence was “embarrassed” to run for the USU on the basis that it cut staff working hours, she’s got to be really embarrassed to take preferences from Vikki Qin who actively supported those cuts, direct preferences to Ada Choi who equivocated about them, and likely support Benny Shen for President. Benny, in his Pulp interview last year, when asked the question of where he’d in principle cut a million dollars from the USU, not only jumped at the opportunity to cut staff, but proposed replacing them with student casuals. If preferences are meant to be demonstrative of a candidate’s values, this is alarming news for USU staff. It also doesn’t bode well for Prudence’s consistency: after defending cuts in her Honi interview, she’s been eager to reassure the Left that she’s pro-worker and has spent a lot of time frantically condemning the policy. Not exactly solidarity forever.
We suspect Prue will be willing to weather her embarrassment, because with Vikki’s strong expected primary vote, the second preferences that Prudence has wrangled should see her elected, particularly given that typically international student voters tend to follow HTVs at a higher rate to domestic students.
Vikki Qin
Vikki, who appears poised to capture a lot of the international student vote, has preferenced Prudence second and Ada third. In return, it seems very likely Prudence and Ada have also committed to support Benny Shen for USU President in the Executive Elections in June if they are elected. It’s unlikely Switch, the faction backing Prudence, could have offered Benny, who is backing Vikki, any SRC favours down the line, so it follows they’ve agreed to support him as President over Nick Forbutt.
Ada Choi
Ada Choi has not published a how-to-vote at the time of writing. She receives Prudence’s second preferences, and Vikki’s third preferences.
Eitan Harris
Eitan Harris only appears to be involved in a direct 2-for-2 swap with Belinda Thomas, as predicted in our candidate preview. Getting the 2nd preferences of a Unity candidate is a massive get, particularly for an independent, but would only play very favourably for Harris should Thomas be excluded early on with a poor primary vote, although it is highly unlikely; fellow Unity aspirant Tom Manousaridis was only excluded in the final count last year by the Board’s affirmative-action policy, which requires three wom*n-identifying candidates to be elected in odd-numbered years. With Harris being a relatively passive member of the ALP off campus, this seems to be a relatively earnest deal rooted in principle and little else.
Amir Jabbari
Amir Jabbari has preferenced Nick Rigby second and Ben Hines third. He receives Ben’s fourth preferences, and Nick’s third preferences, both behind established factional candidates who will likely have much stronger primary votes than him. This makes it unlikely that he benefits from preference flows. Nick and Ben will benefit from Amir’s preferences should he get excluded early, which given his self-managed campaign and minimal base, is pretty likely.
What does this all mean for me?
Technically, nothing. You have absolutely no obligation to follow a candidate’s how-to-vote, and as we’ve outlined, it’s probably a better reflection of your values as a voter if you don’t. Make your own mind up; our profiles of each candidate, as well as our interviews and analysis of the race are all here. Voting is open as of 9am on 18 May, and closes at 5pm on 22 May and if you are a USU member you should have been emailed a link to voting.
Our profiles of the candidates: