US Election: How will it impact young Australians?

By Jossie Warnant 

With just a few days until the 2020 US presidential election, I sat down with Dr. David Smith, Senior Lecturer in American Politics and Foreign Policy at the United States Studies Centre (USSC), to talk about the likely impact of the election result on issues of interest to young Australians. 

The Environment 
The last four years have seen the Trump administration repeal many of the modest strides the Obama administration had made in terms of environmental policy. Smith says that another four years of a Trump presidency “would rule out any possibility of the United States being involved in any kind of collective agreement to try to reduce carbon emissions.” This would severely limit the world’s capability to take action on climate change, given that the US is the biggest carbon emitter per capita, and an agreement that included the US would be much more effective than one without. Smith says that domestically, Trump has “indicated a  real willingness to continue to back industries that are major carbon emitters” and has placed strong focus on the issue of fracking which will be key in swing states such as Pennsylvania. 

According to the United Nations there has been a “staggering rise” in the number of extreme weather events over the past 20 years, driven predominantly by rising global temperatures and other climatic changes. Smith predicts that if awarded another term, Trump is likely to take a similar approach to climate change as he took to the COVID-19 pandemic, with rhetoric that downplays and denies the seriousness of this existential challenge to the US and global population. Smith says “the response that we would get from the Trump administration would simply be ‘well, you know, that's, it's fine. It's not really a problem. It's just getting warmer, we can deal with it.”

Presidential nominee Joe Biden, on the other hand, is running on a platform that plans to see the U.S. achieve a 100% clean energy economy and reach net-zero emissions no later than 2050. His policy platform stops short of embracing progressive ideas such as the proposed Green New Deal. Smith says that whether or not Biden will be able to achieve any substantial reform on climate change would depend on whether Republicans won control by the House of Representatives and the Senate because “as the Obama administration showed, there's only so much the President can achieve through executive orders around climate.” 

According to the Climate Change on the American Mind survey, the percentage of Americans who say global warming is personally important is now at a record high, 72 percent, up 9 percentage points since March 2018. Smith says that climate change has also become a more significant priority for the Democratic Party, but it is likely that Biden will prioritise other issues, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and economic recovery, in his first two years as president. 

Foreign Policy
Trump’s presidency has been marked by a non-traditional approach to diplomatic relations and international cooperation. Trump’s nationalistic approach has been expressed in his disdain for international organisations, culminating in his withdrawal of US funding from the World Health Organisation. Smith says that “another four years of Trump would just really encourage more moves away from international cooperation.” 

A Biden presidency is likely to see a return to a more traditional approach to US international relations that would “try to restore the idea of the US being in a very significant position of leadership.” Smith is hopeful that Biden could rebuild many of the ally relationships tarnished during Trump’s presidency, but recognises that some relationships “might have changed forever”, including Europe’s lessening reliance on Anglophone powers such as the US and UK. 

Civil Rights 
This year has seen some of the largest protest events in US history, with the death of George Floyd and others at the hands of police prompting calls to defund the police and address systemic racism in the US. Trump responded to this movement with theatrical displays of violence against protesters and little in the way of concrete actions to change the culture of policing in America. Smith says that “there is a real political divide” where ‘Blue Lives Matter’ has become a rallying point for Trump supporters that has fuelled division between law enforcement and protesters. Smith predicts that, if Trump is re-elected, these divisions will be solidified which will “accelerate police aggression towards protesters and also accelerate the protester response as well.”

Biden supports the need for police reform but does not support the idea of defunding the police, instead focusing on the idea of community policing which involves strengthening relations between the police and the communities they work in. Smith says that funding and police is mainly handled at a local level, meaning that while the President’s voice on this issue is “persuasive in the ability to set the national agenda”, significant change is unlikely to happen at a federal level. 

US-Australia Relations
During the Trump presidency, Australia has seen little change in its relationship with the US. Smith says we “fly under the radar probably because we run a trade deficit with the United States”. This is unlikely to change irrespective of the president elected, but Australia will have to work in different ways depending on the outcome of the election. If Biden wins, the US relationship with China is likely to change to one that is assertive but seeks workable outcomes, according to the USSC’s report “Biden vs Trump: An Australian Guide to the Issues”. The report also reveals that Australia may experience issues during the leadership transition, as we have previously been perceived to be closely aligned with the Trump administration. If Trump is re-elected it will be vital to maintain Australia’s current level of access to the White House to ensure that we have a series of allies in the senate that can be called upon to intervene in the event of any potentially negative trade or policy decisions for Australia.  

Many Australians are waiting for the US election results with bated breath. Only time will tell whether we see a continuation of Trump’s erratic and tumultuous presidency or a return to some semblance of the traditional United States power role that we have come to know.