Euros: Top Teams Guide (Part 2)
Fabian Robertson writes.
Part 1 here.
Spain
Group E
World Ranking: 6
Coach: Luis Enrique
The Spanish national team are somewhat languishing in a transitional period following their world-beating golden era. The legendary team starring Andres Iniesta, Xavi and Carles Puyol is a distant memory, with only Jordi Alba (Barcelona) and Sergio Busquets (Barcelona) remaining from the 2012 Euros-winning squad.
Spain play a 4-3-3 rich in midfield talent but lacking world-class goal-scorers. After being ostracised by Didier Deschamps, Aymeric Laporte (Manchester City) switched nationalities to partner Pau Torres (Villareal) at Centre-Back. Captain Alba operates at Left-Back while Marcos Llorente (Atletico Madrid) has been converted from a Centre-Midfielder to a Right-Back.
Rodri (Manchester City) runs the show from the base of the midfield, while Pedri (Barcelona), Thiago (Liverpool), Fabián Ruiz (Napoli) and Koké (Atletico Madrid) will share the Centre-Midfield responsibilities.
Danny Olmo (RB Leipzig) at Left-Wing and Ferran Torres (Manchester City) at Right-Wing offer pace, technical ability and goal-scoring. Unfortunately, Spain’s first-choice Number 9 Alvaro Morata (Juventus) has developed a reputation for squandering chances and lacks confidence in front of goal. One could expect Gerard Moreno (Villareal) to oust Morata from the starting XI after a prolific La Liga campaign consisting of 23 goals and 7 assists.
Predictions: If Spain top Group E, they will face 3rd place from Group D in the Round of 16 and should progress. From there, I expect them to get knocked out by either England or Portugal. Quarter Final Exit.
Portugal
Group F
World Ranking: 5
Coach: Fernando Santos
The reigning champions have one of the most stacked squads in the tournament but must navigate the group of death with France and Germany to proceed to the knockout rounds. Portugal’s wealth of options is such that their final 4-2-3-1 line-up is still unclear in some key positions.
Premier League Player of the Season Rúben Dias (Manchester City) will start at Centre-Back likely alongside Pepé (Porto). The marauding Raphael Guerreiro (Dortmund) should start at Left-Back while the technical Joāo Cancelo’s (Manchester City) club form assured him a starting berth ahead of Nelson Semedo (Wolves) until he tested positive for COVID-19.
Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) will play at Centre-Attacking-Midfield and likely force bright prospect Joao Felix (Atletico Madrid) to the bench. Fernandes has accrued an absurd 26 goals and 19 assists in 51 games in the Premier League and will play a key part in Portugal’s success. The free-scoring Diogo Jota (Liverpool) will operate at Left-Wing with Bernardo Silva (Manchester City) offering link-up play and crossing when inside on his favoured left-foot from Right-Wing.
The second-best player of all time in Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus) will play at Striker off the back of a 29-goal Serie A season. Meanwhile, André Silva (Eintracht Frankfurt) is in career-best form with 28 goals and 5 assists in the Bundesliga, and will no doubt be utilised by Santos for important cameos from the bench.
Predictions: Escaping Group F is a challenge for every team involved. That being said, Portugal are expected to finish second behind World Champions France, which would likely see them face England in the Round of 16. In a match between two of the best sides in the tournament, I can see Southgate’s men just clinching the win. Ronaldo to score less than 4 goals. Round of 16 Exit.
France
Group F
World Ranking: 2
Coach: Didier Deschamps
Les Bleus are tournament favourites and for good reason. Paul Pogba (Manchester United) called the France setup a “Playstation squad” in reference to the quality of their players being akin to an all-star team designed in a videogame.
France operated an unconventional 4-2-3-1 in the 2018 World Cup, with Corentin Tolisso (Bayern Munich) or Blaise Matuidi (Inter Miami) deployed as a false ‘Left-Midfielder’ that tucked in to play alongside the base of the midfield. This freed up Kylian Mbappé (PSG) to attack on the right flank as an advanced Right-Midfielder, while Antoine Griezmann (Barcelona) at Centre-Attacking-Midfield ran the show as a creative second striker behind Olivier Giroud (Chelsea).
The surprise return of the in-form Karim Benzema - after a period outside of the national team following a sex tape scandal with Mathieu Valbuena - has prompted Deschamps to switch things up. Benzema has essentially forced himself into the starting line-up after scoring 23 goals and 9 assists in La Liga with 6 goals in the Champions League.
Consequently, France will likely play a 4-4-2 diamond to get the most out of their three best attacking assets: Benzema, Mbappé and Griezmann.
The defensive unit is the same as the one that won the World Cup, aside from the exclusion of Samuel Umtiti (Barcelona) who has been unable to fully recover from multiple knee injuries. Hugo Lloris (Tottenham) captains from between the sticks with Presnel Kimpembe (PSG) and Raphael Varane (Real Madrid) forming an excellent partnership at Centre-Back. Benjamin Pavard (Bayern Munich) will play at Right-Back after his breakthrough 2018 tournament which saw THAT volley against Argentina, with Lucas Hernandez (Bayern Munich) continuing at Left-Back.
The midfield diamond will likely consist of N’Golo Kanté at Defensive-Midfield, Pogba at Right-Centre-Midfield, Tolisso or Adrien Rabiot (Juventus) at Left-Centre-Midfield and Griezmann at Centre-Attacking-Midfield.
Operating with essentially 4 central midfielders and 2 strikers unfortunately leaves no room for French wingers, with Kingsley Coman (Bayern Munich), Thomas Lemar (Atletico Madrid) and Ousmane Dembelé (Barcelona) relegated to the bench.
The depth of French assets is also such that Antony Martial (Manchester United) and Dayot Upamecano (RB Leipzig) weren’t even selected in the 26-man squad.
Predictions: France are the best side in the tournament, combining incredible solidity with an unparalleled attacking threat. They should top Group F and progress to the final. The safe decision here would be to pick France to win the whole thing, but I think that if England qualify for the Final they might just pull something out the bag. Griezmann, Kanté and Mbappé will be in contention for player of the tournament. Runners up.
Germany
Group F
World Ranking: 12
Coach: Joachim Low
The accomplished Joachim Low takes the national team reigns for the last time at the Euros, hoping to bounce back from a disastrous Group Stage exit at the 2018 World Cup. Despite a wealth of world class central midfielders, Germany lack wingbacks and dependable Centre-Forwards.
For the opening game against France, Low will likely adopt a more conservative 3-4-3, with a back three of Antonio Rudiger (Chelsea), Mats Hummels (Dortmund) and Matthias Ginter (Monchengladbach). Hummels will marshal the defence from the centre while Rudiger and Ginter will carry the ball forwards from their respective flanks. .
Despite being one of the best Centre-Midfielders in the world, Joshua Kimmich (Bayern Munich) will likely play at Right-Wing-Back, where he can use his considerable play-making ability to influence the attack.
The selection of Ilkay Gundogan (Manchester City) and Toni Kroos (Real Madrid) leaves no room for Leon Goretzka (Bayern Munich) in midfield.
Kai Havertz (Chelsea) - fresh from scoring the Champions League-winning goal - and Serge Gnabry (Bayern Munich) will operate on the wings while veteran Thomas Muller will play through the middle, despite typically playing a slightly deeper role. The rapid Leroy Sane (Bayern Munich) and Timo Werner (Chelsea) will be genuine threats from the bench.
Predictions: Despite recent poor form in major tournaments, expect Germany to give a good account of themselves at these Euros. While there are no guarantees in the group of death, Germany would be unlucky not to make the Round of 16. If they come third, they could face a relatively easy fixture against Netherlands and an even easier fixture against Switzerland in the Quarter Final. There is a comparatively clear path to the Semi-Final for a qualifying third-placed team from Group F. Semi-Final exit